The Olivier Awards 2026: who should and who will win?

Mickey Jo Theatre makes his predictions on who will — and who should — win on theatre’s biggest night, 12 April 2026!

Summary

• The Olivier Awards 2026 takes place on 12 April at the Royal Albert Hall
• The awards celebrate 50 years in 2026
• Paddington and Into The Woods lead the way with 11 nominations each

Once again, the newly announced Olivier Award nominations have ignited a wildfire of chatter among London’s theatregoers, with talk of snubs and surprises quickly giving way to everyone’s predictions of who this year’s winners will be.

The most nominated productions this year are both musicals, with Paddington the Musical and Into The Woods both having earned 11. The rival revival is last summer’s headline-making production of Evita at the London Palladium.

Meanwhile, where plays are concerned, lauded West End productions including All My Sons, Punch, and Inter Alia are nominated a few times over and expected to do well while edgier new work such as 1536 and KENREX are primed to cause an upset.

Between the too-close-to-call and the ones they may as well engrave already, here is my verdict on the race to Olivier victory.

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Best New Play

• 1536 by Ava Pickett at Almeida Theatre
• Inter Alia by Suzie Miller at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Kenrex by Jack Holden & Ed Stambollouian at The Other Palace
• Punch by James Graham at Young Vic & Apollo Theatre

What will win: There’s no obvious front-runner to my mind but 1536 has dominated conversation, amidst a big year for Ava Pickett.
What should win: If we’re talking about the play that pushes the medium forward with the most impact to society, I think Punch deserves this.
Should have been nominated: I didn’t anticipate a win for Stereophonic as Broadway’s hit plays are often passed over, but the lack of a nomination is indefensible.

Best New Musical

• Here We Are, book by David Ives, music & lyrics by Stephen Sondheim at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Paddington The Musical, music & lyrics by Tom Fletcher & book by Jessica Swale at Savoy Theatre
• Shucked, book by Robert Horn, music & lyrics by Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally at Regent's Park Open Air Theatre
• The Unlikely Pilgrimage Of Harold Fry, book by Rachel Joyce, music & lyrics by Passenger at Theatre Royal Haymarket

What will win: Paddington the Musical leads the way in this category (and throughout the ceremony) almost unrivalled.
What should win: The possibility of a sweep for Paddington might be met with more irritation if it wasn’t so very good.
Should have been nominated: Sing Street at the Lyric Hammersmith, as plucky and spirited as its new cast, ought to have made the cut.

Best Revival

• All My Sons by Arthur Miller at Wyndham's Theatre
• Arcadia by Tom Stoppard at The Old Vic
• Much Ado About Nothing by William Shakespeare at Theatre Royal Drury Lane
• The Seagull by Anton Chekhov, adapted by Duncan Macmillan & Thomas Ostermeier at Barbican Theatre

What will win: Few openings in the last year have been as unanimously adored as the staggering All My Sons. Anyone who experienced those uninterrupted 120 minutes of intensity is expecting this to win more than one award next month.
What should win: All My Sons …and it will be absolutely justified.

Best Musical Revival

• American Psycho, book by Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa, music & lyrics by Duncan Sheik, based on the novel by Bret Easton Ellis at Almeida Theatre
• Evita, lyrics by Tim Rice, music by Andrew Lloyd Webber at The London Palladium
• Into The Woods, music & lyrics by Stephen Sondheim, book by James Lapine at Bridge Theatre
• The Producers, music & lyrics by Mel Brooks, book by Mel Brooks & Thomas Meehan at Garrick Theatre

What will win: The 11 nominations for Into The Woods paint a clear picture of its path to victory, as with last year’s Fiddler on the Roof win from the same director, Jordan Fein.
What should win: Evita, of course! Have we all forgotten the delirious joy of last summer and the dedication of those who stood for hours on Argyll Street to catch a glimpse? Nothing tops it.

Best Director

• Jordan Fein for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre
• Luke Sheppard for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre
• Ed Stambollouian for Kenrex at The Other Palace
• Lyndsey Turner for 1536 at Almeida Theatre
• Ivo van Hove for All My Sons at Wyndham's Theatre

Who will win: I’m going to stick my neck out for Paddington’s Luke Sheppard - even though it’s often an uphill battle for a director of a musical at the Oliviers.
Who should win: When Ivo van Hove is good, he’s great. It’s no under-dog story but his All My Sons was rapturous.
Should have been nominated: There was shock from some that the always- talked-about Jamie Lloyd wasn’t in the mix, but I think the lack of Inter Alia director Justin Martin is much more egregious.

Best Actor in a Musical

• Marc Antolin for The Producers at Garrick Theatre
• James Hameed & Arti Shah for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre
• Andy Nyman for The Producers at Garrick Theatre
• Jamie Parker for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre
• Diego Andres Rodriguez for Evita at The London Palladium

Who will win: Outside of Best Musical, this feels like the biggest lock for Team Paddington - James Hameed and Arti Shah.
Who should win: What Arti and James achieve together is a truly magical collaboration that transcends almost everything else we’ve seen this year.
Should have been nominated: It was an inexplicable shock to exclude Mark Addy who walks his way into the audience’s hearts in The Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry.

Best Actress in a Musical

• Katie Brayben for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre
• Danielle Fiamanya & Georgina Onuorah for Brigadoon at Regent's Park Open Air Theatre
• Jane Krakowski for Here We Are at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Jenna Russell for The Unlikely Pilgrimage Of Harold Fry at Theatre Royal Haymarket
• Rachel Zegler for Evita at The London Palladium

Who will win: Rachel Zegler already has a veritable trophy cabinet for her starring, and often decorated role. Don’t cry for her, this is a no-brainer.
Who should win: Rachel Zegler. She had me at balcony.
Should have been nominated: Amy Ellen Richardson has been called the heart of Paddington and I don’t disagree.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett for The Seagull at Barbican Theatre
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste for All My Sons at Wyndham's Theatre
• Julia McDermott for Weather Girl at Soho Theatre
• Rosamund Pike for Inter Alia at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Rosie Sheehy for Guess How Much I Love You? at Jerwood Theatre Downstairs at Royal Court Theatre

Who will win: Moving portraits of motherhood and grief fill this category, none quite as soul-scorching as Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s fiercely emotionally intelligent turn in All My Sons.
Who should win: In the footsteps of Jodie Comer’s Prima Facie win, Rosamund Pike will surely be taking this one.
Should have been nominated: Regardless of the outdated binary of gendered acting categories, it’s ridiculous that Mason Alexander Park hasn’t been recognised for Oh, Mary!. A surprising omission of Cynthia Erivo in Dracula, too.

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston for All My Sons at Wyndham's Theatre
• Sean Hayes for Good Night, Oscar at Barbican Theatre
• Tom Hiddleston for Much Ado About Nothing at Theatre Royal Drury Lane
• Jack Holden for Kenrex at The Other Palace
• David Shields for Punch at Young Vic & Apollo Theatre

Who will win: Sean Hayes has already won the Tony for this performance, but he wasn’t rivalled then by Bryan Cranston, who loomed large at the Wyndham’s.
Who should win: What a thrilling upset it would be, though, if Jack Holden surpassed the big names and nabbed a well deserved trophy for his marathon, multi-roling turn in Kenrex.
Should have been nominated: Robert Aramayo (on course for huge success in any case) was as invaluable as Rosie Sheehy in the heartbreaking Guess How Much I Love You?.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Hammed Animashaun for Dealer's Choice at Donmar Warehouse
• Paapa Essiedu for All My Sons at Wyndham's Theatre
• Zachary Hart for The Seagull at Barbican Theatre
• Zachary Hart for Stereophonic at Duke of York's Theatre
• Giles Terera for Oh, Mary! at Trafalgar Theatre

Who will win: I’m putting a lot of eggs in the same basket admittedly, but my money is on Paapa Essiedu alongside his onstage father.
Who should win: The doubly-nominated Zachary Hart was evidently a favourite among this year’s nominating committee, and Stereophonic was his finest work.
Should have been nominated: Even with his back to the audience Zachary’s Stereophonic co-star Eli Gelb did brilliant work.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Isis Hainsworth for Arcadia at The Old Vic
• Julie Hesmondhalgh for Punch at Young Vic & Apollo Theatre
• Lucy Karczewski for Stereophonic at Duke of York’s Theatre
• Hayley Squires for All My Sons at Wyndham’s Theatre
• Sophie Thompson for When We Are Married at Donmar Warehouse

Who will win: Julie Hesmondhalgh’s heartfelt turn in Punch is exactly the kind of performance awards voters tend to salute.
Who should win: Lucy Karczewski, in her onstage professional debut no less, was raw and remarkable in Stereophonic.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Musical

• Tracie Bennett for Here We Are at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Amy Booth-Steel for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre
• Kate Fleetwood for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre
• Victoria Hamilton-Barritt for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre
• Georgina Onuorah for Shucked at Regent's Park Open Air Theatre

Who will win: Kate Fleetwood has the advantage of a supporting nomination for a role often (and previously) considered leading.
Who should win: When a show truly stops, you notice, and Amy Booth- Steel makes that happen thrice nightly in Paddington the Musical.
Should have been nominated: It’s hard to believe that theatrical legend Bonnie Langford (who gives a star turn as much as any other cast member in Paddington) still has no Olivier Award nominations.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Musical

• Trevor Ashley for The Producers at Garrick Theatre
• Corbin Bleu for The Great Gatsby - A New Musical at London Coliseum
• Tom Edden for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre
• Jo Foster for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre
• Oliver Savile for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre

Who will win: A previous nominee and the representative for the biggest hit in town? This is surely Tom Edden’s.
Who should win: …as it should be! Tom Edden’s scenery-chewing turn in Paddington is as triumphant as a supporting turn can be.
Should have been nominated: When you recall Shucked, it’s hard not to chuckle thinking about the endless one-liners from Keith Ramsay.

Read the full list of nominees for the 2026 Olivier Awards.

Photo credit: Olivier Awards nominees artwork. (Courtesy of London Theatre). Inset: Paddington, All My Sons, The Producers, Inter Alia, Oh, Mary!, Into The Woods. (Courtesy of productions)